Notes on theses statistics
Preliminary qualifications
The statistics come from the three published compilations of History Theses (1901-1970, 1971-1980, 1981-1990), and from the yearly lists of theses (1991-2006).
Obviously this means that any trends discerned across the whole period are distorted by the fact that there is no decade breakdown for the first seventy years.
The categories to which theses are assigned are not identical across all these volumes, but an attempt has been made to map similar categories onto each other (eg 1901-1970 Britain 1485-1660 is a very imperfect match for 1971-90 Britain Tudor Period).
This should obviously be borne in mind with regard to any conclusions that can be drawn.
It should also be borne in mind that many potentially interesting changes in the study of history (ie the presumed rise in theses on social and then cultural history) will be masked by the fact that the categories used either don’t change or are solely for period and therefore don’t indicate changes by approach
Conclusions
Total number of theses
It is immediately obvious that the numbers of theses in history produced each year vastly increased between 1901 and 2006. However, these figures almost certainly mask the true increase – we can only average the production between 1901 and 1970, but a more precise breakdown would presumably have shown an upwards trend within this period.
| Date span | Average no of theses per year |
| 1901–1970 | 109 |
| 1971–1980 | 442 |
| 1981–1990 | 491 |
| 1991–2000 | 511 |
| 2001–2006 | 556 |
So the trend is obviously upward, but this masks some sharp swings in the years for which we have individual figures for (see Chart 2). For instance, there is a fall in the mid 90s to levels below that of the 1970s, and then an enormous spike in 1999. It would be interesting to explore the reasons for this.
Subjects
Bearing in mind the caveats expressed above, it can be seen that there have been changes in the distribution of theses across different subject areas. The percentage devoted to Britain from C15–C18 has fallen, whilst the proportion dealing with Britain from C19–C20 and Modern Europe have risen.
However, what is most striking in a way is the ABSENCE of trends. Even where there have been changes, these have not been in one direction. So the percentage devoted to Britain from C19–C20 is higher now than in the period 1901–1970 – but it is currently in the process of decline. And Medieval History, having suffered a slump in the 1970s and 1980s, has now recovered in the 2001–2006 period to almost the same share of theses it held from 1901–1970.
For recent years (1991–2006, Chart 2) this ABSENCE is even more marked. The graphs for all the major subject areas largely shadow the fluctuation in total theses (though it might be remarked that Britain from c15–c18 falls below Modern Europe and Medieval History by 2006 – but even this is a development in the last three years and not necessarily indicative of a long-term trend).
CCBH claim that interest in EU has given way to interest in old East Europe
Very difficult to discern anything from the data, as cannot tell whether theses categorised as being on general European themes are dealing with the EU or with themes connected with the Cold War/post-Cold War.
Also, they were talking about contemporary history – whereas trends could be in one direction for contemporary history and in another for earlier periods of what is still classified as Modern European History
Similarly – if a thesis is about Germany there is no indication whether it is about the GDR or FRG.
However, for what they’re worth, the figures below seem to show almost the opposite effect!
| Year(s) | Total Theses on Modern Europe | Theses on ex-communist countries in Europe (inc. Russia) |
| 1901–1970 | ||
| 1971–1980 | ||
| 1981–1990 | 546 | 104 (19%) |
| 1991 | 66 | 16 (24%) |
| 1992 | 66 | 18 (27%) |
| 1993 | 61 | 16 (26%) |
| 1994 | 32 | 5 (16%) |
| 1995 | 60 | 12 (20%) |
| 1996 | 74 | 14 (19%) |
| 1997 | 66 | 10 (15%) |
| 1998 | 69 | 7 (10%) |
| 1999 | 99 | 19 (19%) |
| 2000 | 74 | 15 (20%) |
| 2001 | 85 | 12 (14%) |
| 2002 | 89 | 13 (15%) |
| 2003 | 81 | 12 (15%) |
| 2004 | 83 | 15 (18%) |
| 2005 | 102 | 18 (18%) |
| 2006 | 88 | 10 (11%) |
